دوره 17، شماره 3 - ( مجله کنترل، جلد 17، شماره 3، پاییز 1402 )
جلد 17 شماره 3,1402 صفحات 53-37 |
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Barazesh M, Javidi Dasht Bayaz M H. Investigating the Effect of Tariff Revision Process on Electricity Retail Tariff and Utilities Death Spiral. JoC 2023; 17 (3) :37-53
URL: http://joc.kntu.ac.ir/article-1-1034-fa.html
URL: http://joc.kntu.ac.ir/article-1-1034-fa.html
برازش محمدرضا، جاویدی محمدحسین. بررسی تأثیر فرآیند بازنگری تعرفه ها بر مارپیچ مرگ تعرفه خرده فروشی برق و خدمات شهری. مجله کنترل. 1402; 17 (3) :37-53
1- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد ، ایران
چکیده: (525 مشاهده)
استقرار سریع منابع انرژی توزیع شده (DER) فروش و درآمد شرکت های برق را از بین می برد. بیم آن می رود که تلاش برای بازیابی درآمد از دست رفته آنها از طریق افزایش تعرفه ها ممکن است شرکت های خدمات شهری را در "مارپیچ مرگ" به دام بیندازند. در این مقاله، تعامل بین شرکت‌ها، مصرف‌کنندگان و DERها با استفاده از دینامیک سیستم (SD) برای بررسی تأثیر منابع تجدیدپذیر توزیع‌شده بر آب و برق مدل‌سازی می‌شود. علاوه بر این، مدل جدیدی برای تجدید نظر در تعرفه برق ایجاد شده است که تأخیرهای نظارتی و سازمانی را در بر می گیرد. مدل با آخرین داده های موجود شبیه سازی شده و تحلیل حساسیت برای پارامترهای مهم انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که در حالی که مارپیچ مرگ در شرایط عادی یک تهدید فوری نیست، تاخیر در بازنگری قیمت می تواند نوسانات قابل توجهی در تعرفه برق ایجاد کند که با افزایش تاخیر بدتر می شود. یکی دیگر از نتایج این مطالعه این است که رشد جمعیت پتانسیل کاهش اثرات مارپیچ مرگ را دارد. از طرف دیگر، شرکت‌های خدمات شهری که به مناطقی با نرخ رشد پایین جمعیت خدمات می‌دهند، مانند اروپا، با تهدید جدی‌تری از سوی منابع توزیع شده مواجه هستند.
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